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Thread: Rob Rains: 5 Moves Mo should make to Shake Up Cards

  1. #1
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    Rob Rains: 5 Moves Mo should make to Shake Up Cards

    http://www.stlsportspage.com/CARDSBA...cardinals.aspx

    In short:

    1) Trade Marp
    2) Fire or swap out Maloney as 3B coach
    3) Release Peralta
    4) Release Broxton
    5) Trade Lynn

    Hard to argue the logic. Impossible to see The Way Too Patient One pulling off any of these.
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    Y'know, as much as we blame Matheny for being a dunderhead, teams also take after their best player.

    It can't be a coincidence that the things this team does the worst (strikeouts, baserunning and defense) are also the things Matt Carpenter is absolutely terrible at.

    And no, there's no arguing with any of those ideas. But they're not going to happen.

    Oh goddammit....even our scribes are retarded. Trade Carpenter for 3 months of a demonstrably worse player so we get the privilege of overpaying him in FA? Jesus Raines...why not just trade him for Pujols? Hell, I'd rather they trade him for Pujols than Eric goddamn Hosmer. WHY DO PEOPLE THINK HE'S GOOD!?!?!?
    Last edited by Oz-iz-God; 05-31-2017 at 04:39 PM.
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    Actually I just read via the twitters that Broxton is not with team/RPs for BP. Roster move speculated
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    One down. Is this thread magic!?
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    I would have liked to see Molina traded rather than signed to an extension. Perhaps he is still tradeable.

    I would deal him and bring up Kelly.
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    QuoteOriginally Posted by Dale E Wetzel View Post
    I would have liked to see Molina traded rather than signed to an extension. Perhaps he is still tradeable.

    I would deal him and bring up Kelly.
    Too late now hell he is our best player.
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    QuoteOriginally Posted by barnbird View Post
    Too late now hell he is our best player.
    That's like being the tallest building in Topeka.

    In any case, I would disagree with you there. I would pick Gyorko as our best position player.
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    Hey remember when we had Pujols, Edmonds, Rolen, Renteria, Walker, Molina, Sanders, and Lankford all on the same team?
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    QuoteOriginally Posted by Sonicblast12 View Post
    Hey remember when we had Pujols, Edmonds, Rolen, Renteria, Walker, Molina, Sanders, and Lankford all on the same team?
    Those guys can't hold a candle to Windmill Grichuk and Fowler. Just ask Moe.
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    Trade Fowler too. Even if his bat gets better, I just don't like the way he loafs. I've seen enough.

    I'd listen on just about anyone on the roster not named Reyes. The more I think about it, the more I wouldn't mind watching a bunch of young, hustling players get their brains beat in for a couple of years. I thought about CarMart...but he's the one guy that could really bring back a haul of talent.
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    Probably ridiculous:

    CarMart and Gyorko

    For

    Bregman, Kyle Tucker and Franklin Perez
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    QuoteOriginally Posted by sabertooth5185 View Post
    Probably ridiculous:

    CarMart and Gyorko

    For

    Bregman, Kyle Tucker and Franklin Perez
    I'd see if they'd take Carpenter instead of Gyrk

    Born to DH
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    QuoteOriginally Posted by John D View Post
    I'd see if they'd take Carpenter instead of Gyrk

    Born to DH
    I'd do that, too. I'd hate to see Carlos go, but he is undoubtedly our best chip. I still think Bregman will be a monster. Kyle Tucker could be our Kris Bryant.
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    QuoteOriginally Posted by John D View Post
    I'd see if they'd take Carpenter instead of Gyrk

    Born to DH
    Not much of a market for Carp imo
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    QuoteOriginally Posted by barnbird View Post
    Not much of a market for Carp imo
    If I were an AL GM, I'd jump at the chance to get him.

    You couldn't give him to me if I was an NL GM
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    QuoteOriginally Posted by John D View Post
    I'd see if they'd take Carpenter instead of Gyrk
    I would only trade MCarp if I was getting a price comparable with his value at the end of last year. Otherwise I'd wait for the bounce-back and THEN deal him.
    Carp's BABIP so far is 90+ points lower than his career average. Never deal a guy in the middle of an unlucky streak like that - it's a Sell-Low move.

    Meanwhile Gyorko's sitting with a .364 BABIP, almost 90 points ABOVE his career average. I wouldn't be in a rush to deal a position-flexible 28-year-old with a good contract, but if someone were willing to pay full price as if his .900 OPS is a permanent thing, OK sure.
    Last edited by Hutch Fan; 06-01-2017 at 05:57 AM.
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    QuoteOriginally Posted by Hutch Fan View Post
    I would only trade MCarp if I was getting a price comparable with his value at the end of last year. Otherwise I'd wait for the bounce-back and THEN deal him.
    Carp's BABIP so far is 90+ points lower than his career average. Never deal a guy in the middle of an unlucky streak like that - it's a Sell-Low move.

    Meanwhile Gyorko's sitting with a .364 BABIP, almost 90 points ABOVE his career average. I wouldn't be in a rush to deal a position-flexible 28-year-old with a good contract, but if someone were willing to pay full price as if his .900 OPS is a permanent thing, OK sure.
    No argument there. I just feel Carpenter has no defensive position.
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    Seems like Carp is trying to lift everything he sees, but doesn't have quite enough pop to do a ton of damage with it. A lot of fly balls to the track. Seems he was more of a line drive guy in the past, but I don't know.
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    QuoteOriginally Posted by Sonicblast12 View Post
    Seems like Carp is trying to lift everything he sees, but doesn't have quite enough pop to do a ton of damage with it. A lot of fly balls to the track. Seems he was more of a line drive guy in the past, but I don't know.
    I bet he hit more home runs when he was lead off man , I know it is probably just a mental thing but could that be his problem ?
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    His average launch angle is 21.59, MLB average is 12.97. Even the stat cast home run kings Judge and Stanton have launch angles in the 13's.

    Carp's got his 8 iron out on the par 5 when everyone else is hitting driver. Probably explains that babip dip, soft fly balls don't find turf very often.
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    Fangraphs "Batted Ball" profile will tell you a lot.

    His soft contact rate is up at the expense of "medium" contact. His fly ball rate is up, while his line drive rate is down. His pull rate is down; his oppo rate is up.

    That's all vs. last year.

    So, he's not quite stinging the ball like he was. On the other hand, his BABIP is 66 points lower than last year!

    So, it's a combination of a slight decline in batting profile with a whole shitload of bad luck. (Or could be more of hitting into the shift - hard to tell in this dataset).

    http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx...=3B#battedball
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    QuoteOriginally Posted by Sonicblast12 View Post
    His average launch angle is 21.59, MLB average is 12.97. Even the stat cast home run kings Judge and Stanton have launch angles in the 13's.

    Carp's got his 8 iron out on the par 5 when everyone else is hitting driver. Probably explains that babip dip, soft fly balls don't find turf very often.
    He scares no one.
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    QuoteOriginally Posted by Sonicblast12 View Post
    Seems like Carp is trying to lift everything he sees, but doesn't have quite enough pop to do a ton of damage with it. A lot of fly balls to the track. Seems he was more of a line drive guy in the past, but I don't know.
    I think what I'm seeing that looks strange to me is how prominent his top hand is. Really tries to use that top hand as a 'club' to push the bathead through.

    There're something about his hands as he brings the bat through the hitting zone that looks really odd to me and I think that's what I've settled on. I'd have to really watch it closely to know for sure but you're right, he's just launching everything skyward and it's just not working for him at all.

    He's got Wong's disease (and it sounds like Piscotty was trying to contract it in the off-season). This hitting staff is just so goddamn bad that they read about something online and seemingly have no idea how to put it to practical use. They read about launch angles and the next thing we know we hear about Piscotty talk about adding more loft to his swing, as though his 2015 season in AAA wasn't dedicated to doing exactly that. And it WORKED! Then he came up here and sure enough, we've dicked him all up.

    It's a terrible, terrible coaching staff really from top to bottom. They need to broom the lot of them.
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    QuoteOriginally Posted by Oz-iz-God View Post
    I think what I'm seeing that looks strange to me is how prominent his top hand is. Really tries to use that top hand as a 'club' to push the bathead through.

    There're something about his hands as he brings the bat through the hitting zone that looks really odd to me and I think that's what I've settled on. I'd have to really watch it closely to know for sure but you're right, he's just launching everything skyward and it's just not working for him at all.

    He's got Wong's disease (and it sounds like Piscotty was trying to contract it in the off-season). This hitting staff is just so goddamn bad that they read about something online and seemingly have no idea how to put it to practical use. They read about launch angles and the next thing we know we hear about Piscotty talk about adding more loft to his swing, as though his 2015 season in AAA wasn't dedicated to doing exactly that. And it WORKED! Then he came up here and sure enough, we've dicked him all up.

    It's a terrible, terrible coaching staff really from top to bottom. They need to broom the lot of them.
    Since Matheny has taken the helm, it's difficult to find even one young position player that has bloomed and sustained his success.

    They seem to go into these Wong-like funks (Piscotty is in one now too) and they never seem to emerge.

    Grichuk, Wong, Adams, etc.
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    QuoteOriginally Posted by two-hole View Post
    So, it's a combination of a slight decline in batting profile with a whole shitload of bad luck. (Or could be more of hitting into the shift - hard to tell in this dataset).

    http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx...=3B#battedball
    It's not bad luck when you keep hitting fly balls to left field. Those are usually outs. Has he hit the RC gap once this year?

    His swing is pretty long and he might have to turn it down a notch. He's late on a lot of balls.
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    QuoteOriginally Posted by Oz-iz-God View Post
    I think what I'm seeing that looks strange to me is how prominent his top hand is. Really tries to use that top hand as a 'club' to push the bathead through.

    There're something about his hands as he brings the bat through the hitting zone that looks really odd to me and I think that's what I've settled on. I'd have to really watch it closely to know for sure but you're right, he's just launching everything skyward and it's just not working for him at all.

    He's got Wong's disease (and it sounds like Piscotty was trying to contract it in the off-season). This hitting staff is just so goddamn bad that they read about something online and seemingly have no idea how to put it to practical use. They read about launch angles and the next thing we know we hear about Piscotty talk about adding more loft to his swing, as though his 2015 season in AAA wasn't dedicated to doing exactly that. And it WORKED! Then he came up here and sure enough, we've dicked him all up.

    It's a terrible, terrible coaching staff really from top to bottom. They need to broom the lot of them.
    He has a slow bat.

    The Dodgers have been working him (Carpenter) with hard stuff up and letting him make outs to the big part of the field. He's your 3rd place hitter, that's not good.
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    QuoteOriginally Posted by Speedy G View Post
    It's not bad luck when you keep hitting fly balls to left field. Those are usually outs. Has he hit the RC gap once this year?

    His swing is pretty long and he might have to turn it down a notch. He's late on a lot of balls.
    it's a lot bad luck.

    we're still talking about a guy with a nearly 87% medium to hard contact rate. less than 29% ground balls, and his homer to fly ball ratio is better than LY.

    he's improved his o-zone swing % (rate he swings at pitches outside the zone) by almost 5 points. his biggest problem is he's not making contact as often with pitches inside the zone.

    in any case, none of this adds up to a 66 point babip decline. does anyone know where to find xbabip or xwoba? i would guess his x-rates are much higher than his actuals, indicating, yes, a lot of this is shitty luck.
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    I bet you're one of those guys that thinks Jeff Samardzija is unlucky.
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    QuoteOriginally Posted by Sonicblast12 View Post
    I bet you're one of those guys that thinks Jeff Samardzija is unlucky.
    ROFL
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    QuoteOriginally Posted by Sonicblast12 View Post
    I bet you're one of those guys that thinks Jeff Samardzija is unlucky.
    I'd say 2017 Jeff Samardzija is a bit unlucky.
    His BABIP is 40+ points above his career average, his strand rate is down in the 60%s, and his ERA is up despite his K:BB ratio being higher than his career norms.
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    There is always some luck, both ways, but saying he's just been unlucky is a cop out.

    Matt Carpenter is a terrible opposite field hitter, but he's hitting a lot of balls the other way, so more outs.

    He's also hitting a ton of fly balls, which are usually outs.

    His success rate on ground balls is actually up. That's good luck.

    In recent years, he's become an extreme fly ball hitter. He's been slow getting to balls this year, resulting in an inordinate amount of opposite field fly balls, which are virtually certain outs. He is hitting nothing to right-center field b/c he's late.

    When he starts pulling more balls to right and right-center his "luck" will change.
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    QuoteOriginally Posted by two-hole View Post
    it's a lot bad luck.

    we're still talking about a guy with a nearly 87% medium to hard contact rate. less than 29% ground balls, and his homer to fly ball ratio is better than LY.

    he's improved his o-zone swing % (rate he swings at pitches outside the zone) by almost 5 points. his biggest problem is he's not making contact as often with pitches inside the zone.

    in any case, none of this adds up to a 66 point babip decline. does anyone know where to find xbabip or xwoba? i would guess his x-rates are much higher than his actuals, indicating, yes, a lot of this is shitty luck.

    Yeah, his xBABIP is fine; about .316. Now that said, I've never seen an xBABIP below .300ish so I'm of the mind that xBABIP is inflated by a bit. But even giving him the best possible outcome and a BABIP that matches his xBABIP, it's some bad luck, yes, but not an extraordinary amount. Afterall, he'd still only be batting around .270 based on his batted ball profile.

    But he's also so passive early in counts that it ends up putting him in bad hitting situations often, so it's not surprising that his BABIP is lagging, even when figuring in his xBABIP.

    Right now there's a book on how to pitch to Carpenter - up and inside will get that lazy fly to RF often. And you know you only have to make maybe 2 good pitches in any AB because he's going to take at least one strike, even the get me over variety. He's making things way too easy on pitchers at the moment.

    The luck's not helping but the approach is poor. He's not a very good hitter right now.
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    Carpenter's 7th inning liner is a nice example.

    xBABIP will LOVE that swing and that piece of hard contact. But because Carpenter's become a dead pull hitter, they had him shifted and it was smoked right at the SS playing on the 2b side of the bag. His xBABIP will certainly go up based on that and the 'gap' between that and his BABIP will continue to increase, but the fact is that Matt Carpenter got out not because of bad luck, but because things he's doing as a hitter that make him easier to pitch to and to defend.

    He's just not a terribly difficult at bat these days.
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  34. #34
    I know Carpenter isn't doing the job on a consistent level (if at all) and neither is Folwler, but a part of me wonders if the batting order might be an issue. I could swear Carpenter was always better at hitting lead off in past years. Not sure what about Fowler keeps him at #1 if Carpenter has had nice numbers in this organization the past few years in that spot too. I wonder if Carpenter would do better in his usual batting spot? Never having played professional sports but always hearing about weird things ball players believe in, I just wonder if Carpenter is experiencing some sort of weird thing having to do with being misplaced in the batting order.
    Last edited by William Haverchuck; 06-01-2017 at 07:34 PM.
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    QuoteOriginally Posted by William Haverchuck View Post
    I know Carpenter isn't doing the job on a consistent level (if at all) and neither is Folwler, but a part of me wonders if the batting order might be an issue. I could swear Carpenter was always better at hitting lead off in past years. Not sure what about Fowler keeps him at #1 if Carpenter has had nice numbers in this organization the past few years in that spot too. I wonder if Carpenter would do better in his usual batting spot? Never having played professional sports but always hearing about weird things ball players believe in, I just wonder if Carpenter is experiencing some sort of weird thing having to do with being misplaced in the batting order.
    I sure would give it a try based on past results but Gump has his script all figured out.
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  36. #36
    I don't know about the third base coach. I remember Oquendo not having a lot of fans either. I'm not exactly sure how you scout a third base coach, or any coaches for that matter.

    Glad Broxton is gone. Not someone I would have signed to a two year deal, but Moe seems to like the two year deals.

    Peralta is not good any more. It would be nice to see him be released also because tons of players can get major league experience hitting singles (if not more).

    I would trade Lynn near the end of the year even if we are competing for a playoff spot, which Pecota probably predicts against. I'm not sure if Moe can get us something good, but, I think it would be good to try to get something (I've never liked Lynn in the playoffs).
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    QuoteOriginally Posted by William Haverchuck View Post
    I know Carpenter isn't doing the job on a consistent level (if at all) and neither is Folwler, but a part of me wonders if the batting order might be an issue. I could swear Carpenter was always better at hitting lead off in past years. Not sure what about Fowler keeps him at #1 if Carpenter has had nice numbers in this organization the past few years in that spot too. I wonder if Carpenter would do better in his usual batting spot? Never having played professional sports but always hearing about weird things ball players believe in, I just wonder if Carpenter is experiencing some sort of weird thing having to do with being misplaced in the batting order.
    I've made mention numerous times to move Carp to leadoff, Fowler second, Pitcher 8th, and Wong (et al) ninth. If and when this happens watch the offense take off after a couple games using said lineup. A lot of mix and matching can go in between. And if Dejong keeps playing well he can "Oquendo/Zobrist" the lineup and I like our chances.
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    QuoteOriginally Posted by two-hole View Post
    http://www.stlsportspage.com/CARDSBA...cardinals.aspx

    In short:

    1) Trade Marp
    2) Fire or swap out Maloney as 3B coach
    3) Release Peralta
    4) Release Broxton
    5) Trade Lynn

    Hard to argue the logic. Impossible to see The Way Too Patient One pulling off any of these.

    2H; Curious... would you still want to trade LL if you knew (really knew) that he'd win 15-16 games this season and again next season? Obviously, I don't know that he will but that's what I'd expect. And... I'm pretty sure Moe has no chance (none/nada/zilcho) of finding a replacement who can win 15-16 games a year. (I'm assuming that Alex R will replace Wacha in the '18 rotation)
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    QuoteOriginally Posted by The Hawk View Post
    2H; Curious... would you still want to trade LL if you knew (really knew) that he'd win 15-16 games this season and again next season? Obviously, I don't know that he will but that's what I'd expect. And... I'm pretty sure Moe has no chance (none/nada/zilcho) of finding a replacement who can win 15-16 games a year. (I'm assuming that Alex R will replace Wacha in the '18 rotation)
    Lynn is going to be a free agent after this season. If he continues pitching like this, he'll get $100m.

    I don't want to spend big FA dollars on the one thing this organization already does well internally...draft and develop pitching.

    Give me moustakas instead. Or trade for Donaldson and extend him after next season.

    So, yes, let's trade Lynn.
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    QuoteOriginally Posted by William Haverchuck View Post
    I don't know about the third base coach. I remember Oquendo not having a lot of fans either. I'm not exactly sure how you scout a third base coach, or any coaches for that matter.

    Glad Broxton is gone. Not someone I would have signed to a two year deal, but Moe seems to like the two year deals.

    Peralta is not good any more. It would be nice to see him be released also because tons of players can get major league experience hitting singles (if not more).

    I would trade Lynn near the end of the year even if we are competing for a playoff spot, which Pecota probably predicts against. I'm not sure if Moe can get us something good, but, I think it would be good to try to get something (I've never liked Lynn in the playoffs).
    Wong comes back off the DL, will DeJong or Peralta stay?
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    QuoteOriginally Posted by John D View Post
    Wong comes back off the DL, will DeJong or Peralta stay?
    A week ago, I'd have said DeJong....but after dropping Grichuk, Soco and Broxton.....it might actually be Peralta that goes.
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    QuoteOriginally Posted by Indy CardsFan View Post
    A week ago, I'd have said DeJong....but after dropping Grichuk, Soco and Broxton.....it might actually be Peralta that goes.
    It needs to be.

    Still wondering what it was about that roster that "pleased" Moe coming out of spring training?
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    Peralta's still lugging around that Kozma-esque ISO of 0.000

    And at least Kozma developed into a pretty sound defender at SS and a solid baserunner.

    Peralta is very possibly a worse player than Kozma was in his last year here. And he opened the season AS OUR CLEANUP HITTER!!

    Ugh...now I'm irritated again.
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    Peralta starting at 3b today (since we wouldn't want Garcia to play). So he's getting one last chance to save his roster spot.
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    QuoteOriginally Posted by John D View Post
    It needs to be.

    Still wondering what it was about that roster that "pleased" Moe coming out of spring training?
    Just stop.

    News flash: General Managers generally do not publicly denigrate the teams they themselves put together.
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    QuoteOriginally Posted by Indy CardsFan View Post
    Peralta starting at 3b today (since we wouldn't want Garcia to play). So he's getting one last chance to save his roster spot.
    I read a tweet last night from somebody (Maybe VEB) pointing out Peralta's career BA against Lackey and it ended with "Just so you know why when he's inevitably in the lineup tomorrow...."

    Matheny's complete idiocy is on display every single day. Today we get his fascination with meaningless micro-stats.
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  47. #47
    Join Date
    Apr 2002
    Location
    Baltimore, MD
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    Why in the heck is this an afternoon game?
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  48. #48
    Join Date
    Nov 2001
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    Columbia, MO
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    QuoteOriginally Posted by Speedy G View Post
    Why in the heck is this an afternoon game?
    #Cubstuff
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  49. #49
    Join Date
    Apr 2002
    Location
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    Who plays on fricking Friday afternoon? This is absurd.
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  50. #50
    Join Date
    Aug 2001
    Location
    Rock Hill
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    QuoteOriginally Posted by Indy CardsFan View Post
    Peralta starting at 3b today (since we wouldn't want Garcia to play). So he's getting one last chance to save his roster spot.
    PERFECT!
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