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Thread: Let's go 1B man shopping

  1. #1
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    Let's go 1B man shopping

    The offense would work better with a traditional bopper at first batting 3rd of 4th.

    Here are some plausible targets from cellar dwellers in the AL:

    Tampa Bay - Logan Morrison. He is off to a good start, with 13 HR and 38 RBI, slashing .247/.339/.543 and a FA at the end of this year. Making less than 3M. Classic rent-a-player. If the Rays make him available I could a see a lot of interested parties. Then again, didn't we just trade almost that same exact guy to Atlanta? Not enough of a difference maker.

    Kansas City - Eric Hosmer - Now we're talking. FA at the end of this year, will be looking for big payoff contract in '18, but maybe Mo can "pull a Walt" and land Eric, who then will fall in love with our red-clad fans and excellent schools and sign for a new hometown discount. We'd be parting with at least two quality prospects and had better be ready to pony up $22M per year for 5-6 years. After reviewing his career numbers and remembering he only 27 now, he strikes me as a good long term investment. He's only had one 20+ Hr season thus far - it was 2016 - but may developing that rather important "old player skill." Obviously a huge get if Moe could do it, which I know many of you doubt he can. It's been a crummy year in K. C. and if they continue losing and don't think they can sign him after this year, he will likely be available.

    Oakland - Yonder Alonso - Looks a lot like Morrison. Plus Mo would likely get fleeced dealing with Beane. Pass.
    Last edited by paulie walnuts; 05-29-2017 at 02:39 AM.
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    If that's the best they can find, then they might as well try Voit and see what he can/cannot do.
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    Hosmer isn't necessarily a terrible idea, but when you stop and think it over, it doesn't make a whole lot of sense for this club.

    Carpenter is still on the team and the only thing you'd ultimately be doing is blocking Gyorko from playing unless you traded him for little in return.

    Trading for and then extending Hosmer to big money isn't going to help move things in the win column, so if you have 22M to spend it's best to continue doing the only thing the team knows best which is pitching, even if it's in the back of the bullpen. Hosmer would make a nice complimentary player, but we have plenty of those at the moment, even if some of them are struggling more this season. I also don't see him as being worth 22M, though the game is crazy enough that it wouldn't surprise me if he gets more than this.
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    None of these options really improve the club. Hosmer is a nice player, but he's overrated as a middle of the order bat. Plus...our best prospect to offer is Carson Kelly, and the Royals have no need for a catcher.
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    I think Hosmer would be a rather large improvement. And yes I would deal Carpenter, maybe to a third team if that what it took to get Hosmer.

    He was a "disappointment" for a few years when he arrived in the majors - at age 21, remember - but the last several seasons have been strong ones, and he's only 27.

    http://www.baseball-reference.com/pl...osmeer01.shtml

    I reject the idea that "the only thing the Cardinals know" is pitching. That's just fvcking stupid.

    Landing EH could be a Matt Holliday move. He is a potential cornerstone player.

    That doesn't mean KC would take our prospects in return, I'm sure other teams would want in on EH too.
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    We have to be one of the few teams in baseball to not open the season without a true first basemen.
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    Homer isn't a good hitter. His swing is too long and too loud so it's high maintenance as hell. He's prone to massive slumps and can usually be pitched to.

    He's next year's Heyward. Some team will pay him based on what they think he can be rather than who he actually is. And they'll regret it very quickly.
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    QuoteOriginally Posted by Oz-iz-God View Post
    Homer isn't a good hitter. His swing is too long and too loud so it's high maintenance as hell. He's prone to massive slumps and can usually be pitched to.

    He's next year's Heyward. Some team will pay him based on what they think he can be rather than who he actually is. And they'll regret it very quickly.
    That's actually a good comp. JH broke in even younger than Hosmer (20), they are both tall, lefty hitters, plus defenders with multiple gold gloves. Hosmer is ten points better in career BA over JHey.

    You might be right but their respective ages make them attractive to teams who can project further development onto them, which may or may not occur.
    Last edited by paulie walnuts; 05-29-2017 at 05:18 PM.
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    I thought the defensive metrics really hated Hosmer?

    Hard pass.

    I still like moose if we are shopping in KC.
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    QuoteOriginally Posted by paulie walnuts View Post

    I reject the idea that "the only thing the Cardinals know" is pitching. That's just fvcking stupid.
    What else is there? Please enlighten us.
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    QuoteOriginally Posted by two-hole View Post
    I thought the defensive metrics really hated Hosmer?

    Hard pass.

    I still like moose if we are shopping in KC.
    Most metrics don't care for Hosmer.

    Nor does a basic review of his mechanics.

    And finally, he's a prototypical 'bro-douche. Just a complete tool.

    I would hate it if we acquired Hosmer, let alone extended him. He's nothing approaching his draft status or oddly lofty reputation. There isn't anything he really does well.
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    QuoteOriginally Posted by paulie walnuts View Post
    That's actually a good comp. JH broke in even younger than Hosmer (20), they are both tall, lefty hitters, plus defenders with multiple gold gloves. Hosmer is ten points better in career BA over JHey.

    You might be right but their respective ages make them attractive to teams who can project further development onto them, which may or may not occur.
    You don't project further development on 28 yr old free agents with 4,000+ career plate appearances.

    Eric Hosmer is a slightly better than average hitter (below average for his position) who plays barely adequate defense at the easiest position on the diamond while also providing no defensive versatility. He's not an asset of any sort, especially when he starts costing real money.
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    QuoteOriginally Posted by Oz-iz-God View Post
    There isn't anything he really does well.
    He'd fit right into this lineup then.
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    QuoteOriginally Posted by Oz-iz-God View Post
    You don't project further development on 28 yr old free agents with 4,000+ career plate appearances.

    Eric Hosmer is a slightly better than average hitter (below average for his position) who plays barely adequate defense at the easiest position on the diamond while also providing no defensive versatility. He's not an asset of any sort, especially when he starts costing real money.
    Aren't most hitters supposed to hit their peak between 28-32 yrs old? You don't wanna pay 22-25 million per year for peak Hosmer?
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    QuoteOriginally Posted by Goombah! View Post
    Aren't most hitters supposed to hit their peak between 28-32 yrs old? You don't wanna pay 22-25 million per year for peak Hosmer?
    15 years ago, that was the thought.

    Most now agree that it's closer to 26-30. And no, I don't want Hosmer period. He's a player that any good organization should be able to produce.

    He's a 2 WAR player...maybe 3 in a good year but maybe 1 in a not so good one.

    'Peak Hosmer' isn't very good and you'll get that for maybe 2 years. You'll be paying for 6. Stay far far away from Eric Hosmer.
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    QuoteOriginally Posted by Goombah!
    You don't wanna pay 22-25 million per year for peak Hosmer?
    QuoteOriginally Posted by Oz-iz-God View Post
    And no, I don't want Hosmer period. He's a player that any good organization should be able to produce.
    He's a 2 WAR player...maybe 3 in a good year but maybe 1 in a not so good one.
    'Peak Hosmer' isn't very good and you'll get that for maybe 2 years. You'll be paying for 6. Stay far far away from Eric Hosmer.
    $20 million for a 1B who MIGHT give you an .800 OPS? You're nuts.
    Hosmer's career slash line is: .279 AVG/ .336 OBP/ .429 SLG/ .765 OPS. At 1B.
    You don't pay market for that from a free agent. You call it up, or pick it up ultra-cheap off some team's overcrowding at a 1B/LF lower-D-spectrum logjam.
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    QuoteOriginally Posted by Hutch Fan View Post
    $20 million for a 1B who MIGHT give you an .800 OPS? You're nuts.
    Hosmer's career slash line is: .279 AVG/ .336 OBP/ .429 SLG/ .765 OPS. At 1B.
    You don't pay market for that from a free agent. You call it up, or pick it up ultra-cheap off some team's overcrowding at a 1B/LF lower-D-spectrum logjam.
    My remark leaned towards the sarcastic side of questioning. Hosmer will get some money but on name recognition only.
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    QuoteOriginally Posted by Goombah! View Post
    My remark leaned towards the sarcastic side of questioning. Hosmer will get some money but on name recognition only.
    Sorry, then. My sarcasmometer didn't pick it up, as the sentence started with a (roughly) valid fact in favor of Hosmer's contract timing.
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    Giants are looking to shed salary.

    MCarp and Diaz for Belt & Crawford?
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    QuoteOriginally Posted by two-hole View Post
    Giants are looking to shed salary.

    MCarp and Diaz for Belt & Crawford?
    Sure thing. Moe takes on salary all the time.
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    QuoteOriginally Posted by two-hole View Post
    Giants are looking to shed salary.

    MCarp and Diaz for Belt & Crawford?
    You have to subscribe to the theory that the Cardinals can do anything in the next 3 years to make themselves legitimate contenders. I don't subscribe to said theory.

    I actually like Belt quite a bit. In many ways, he's Carpenter but can actually man a defensive position credibly. I think his power would play to a similar level as Carpenter's outside of SF.

    But I don't want to give up a 26 yr old Diaz for a 30 yr old Crawford. Crawfords a fun player and a very good defensive player but right now he and Belt are 2 of the 3 best players on a flawed ballclub. Which is exactly what they'd be if that deal went through (hell, they'd probably be the 2 BEST players on the Cardinals). And that's good enough for the Giants to be also-rans.

    They're not guys that are going to make a major difference. You're just shuffling deck chairs to no real benefit and in the process giving up the youngest player in the group by a fair amount. The only player in the group that could actually be a part of a good Cardinals team in 2021 if these guys ever committed to a rebuild.

    Nah, if you move Carpenter, just commit to a damn rebuild and move him for young talent. I still say you call the Astros and see what you can get accomplished there. Just exactly what would we have to add to that trade to bring back a scuffling Bregman? Carpenter, Lynn and Oh? The Astros have a wide open path to a championship and adding those 3 guys could make all the difference in the world.
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    QuoteOriginally Posted by Oz-iz-God View Post
    You have to subscribe to the theory that the Cardinals can do anything in the next 3 years to make themselves legitimate contenders. I don't subscribe to said theory.

    I actually like Belt quite a bit. In many ways, he's Carpenter but can actually man a defensive position credibly. I think his power would play to a similar level as Carpenter's outside of SF.

    But I don't want to give up a 26 yr old Diaz for a 30 yr old Crawford. Crawfords a fun player and a very good defensive player but right now he and Belt are 2 of the 3 best players on a flawed ballclub. Which is exactly what they'd be if that deal went through (hell, they'd probably be the 2 BEST players on the Cardinals). And that's good enough for the Giants to be also-rans.

    They're not guys that are going to make a major difference. You're just shuffling deck chairs to no real benefit and in the process giving up the youngest player in the group by a fair amount. The only player in the group that could actually be a part of a good Cardinals team in 2021 if these guys ever committed to a rebuild.

    Nah, if you move Carpenter, just commit to a damn rebuild and move him for young talent. I still say you call the Astros and see what you can get accomplished there. Just exactly what would we have to add to that trade to bring back a scuffling Bregman? Carpenter, Lynn and Oh? The Astros have a wide open path to a championship and adding those 3 guys could make all the difference in the world.
    Actually, this makes great sense. It would basically be the deal that Herzog gave Milwaukee - trade them a pennant.

    And, if Moe likes Luhnow's work enough to spy on him, why not nab some of his young talent legitimately?
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    QuoteOriginally Posted by John D View Post
    Actually, this makes great sense. It would basically be the deal that Herzog gave Milwaukee - trade them a pennant.

    And, if Moe likes Luhnow's work enough to spy on him, why not nab some of his young talent legitimately?
    And Luhnow may have witnessed just a bit of the 'flags fly forever' mentality last year when his team that seemingly had a 10 year run of outstanding play in front of it shit the bed for no good reason.

    Sometimes these teams that you bank on gelling and being great simply never do it. And had the Royals not made their aggressive moves for Shields, Davis, Zobrist and Cueto, their 'best farm system in baseball HISTORY' would've netted them precisely dick.

    There's a way to have this conversation. Moreover, the Astros are stacked tight throughout their system - they can afford to move some young talent and backfill.

    We won't so much as even have the conversation, I'm sure. But it should be done. The team desperately needs a new direction.
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    QuoteOriginally Posted by Oz-iz-God View Post
    And Luhnow may have witnessed just a bit of the 'flags fly forever' mentality last year when his team that seemingly had a 10 year run of outstanding play in front of it shit the bed for no good reason.

    Sometimes these teams that you bank on gelling and being great simply never do it. And had the Royals not made their aggressive moves for Shields, Davis, Zobrist and Cueto, their 'best farm system in baseball HISTORY' would've netted them precisely dick.

    There's a way to have this conversation. Moreover, the Astros are stacked tight throughout their system - they can afford to move some young talent and backfill.

    We won't so much as even have the conversation, I'm sure. But it should be done. The team desperately needs a new direction.
    And, Luhnow would be confident in the return. If he insisted on Rosenthal to sweeten things, I'd do that too. No way this team signs him - a Boras client.
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    MCarp, Lynn, and Oh better bring back more than Bregman, Jeebus!

    MCarp should be tempting to them. Oh isn't Chapman, but Chapman brought back GTorres last season. MCarp and Oh for Bregman, OK. Add Lynn - get Martes or Tucker.
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    QuoteOriginally Posted by two-hole View Post
    MCarp, Lynn, and Oh better bring back more than Bregman, Jeebus!

    MCarp should be tempting to them. Oh isn't Chapman, but Chapman brought back GTorres last season. MCarp and Oh for Bregman, OK. Add Lynn - get Martes or Tucker.
    The market for Carp is going to be less than we think, IMO. He's on the wrong side of his prime and he's not helping his value at the moment. And the rest of baseball sees what we see with Lynn - he's a fine #3 starter but as a pending FA, what's his actual value? Especially with a market that's going to include Ervin Santana who has a higher ceiling as a rental, IMO.

    And Oh's a setup man who's pitched the 9th; he's closer in value to Mujica than Chapman. Chapman brought what he brought because his skill-set is completely unique. Oh's skill-set is fairly replaceable, he's just closed games. Well that carries no surplus value to the Astros as they have Giles for the 9th. Oh's a throw-in for them. He's a Gregerson complement that allows Devensky to stay in the multi-inning role in the post-season.

    Carpenter and Oh won't get you Bregman. The guy's a 23 yr old Carpenter clone with a much better glove. If you had tried to acquire him at this time last year, you couldn't get him. Right now he's dealing with an adjustment period so it's the time to strike. If you have to overpay for him, I think you do it. Giving up 2 pending FAs and an aging DH doesn't seem like too much to surrender.
    Last edited by Oz-iz-God; 05-30-2017 at 11:02 AM.
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  27. #27
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    QuoteOriginally Posted by Oz-iz-God View Post
    The market for Carp is going to be less than we think, IMO. He's on the wrong side of his prime and he's not helping his value at the moment. And the rest of baseball sees what we see with Lynn - he's a fine #3 starter but as a pending FA, what's his actual value? Especially with a market that's going to include Ervin Santana who has a higher ceiling as a rental, IMO.

    And Oh's a setup man who's pitched the 9th; he's closer in value to Mujica than Chapman. Chapman brought what he brought because his skill-set is completely unique. Oh's skill-set is fairly replaceable, he's just closed games. Well that carries no surplus value to the Astros as they have Giles for the 9th. Oh's a throw-in for them. He's a Gregerson complement that allows Devensky to stay in the multi-inning role in the post-season.

    Carpenter and Oh won't get you Bregman. The guy's a 23 yr old Carpenter clone with a much better glove. If you had tried to acquire him at this time last year, you couldn't get him. Right now he's dealing with an adjustment period so it's the time to strike. If you have to overpay for him, I think you do it. Giving up 2 pending FAs and an aging DH doesn't seem like too much to surrender.
    Bung says Moe is patient then he "POUNCES"

    He's been really short on the pouncing lately. This is a real opportunity.
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  28. #28
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    QuoteOriginally Posted by Oz-iz-God View Post
    The market for Carp is going to be less than we think, IMO. He's on the wrong side of his prime and he's not helping his value at the moment. And the rest of baseball sees what we see with Lynn - he's a fine #3 starter but as a pending FA, what's his actual value? Especially with a market that's going to include Ervin Santana who has a higher ceiling as a rental, IMO.

    And Oh's a setup man who's pitched the 9th; he's closer in value to Mujica than Chapman. Chapman brought what he brought because his skill-set is completely unique. Oh's skill-set is fairly replaceable, he's just closed games. Well that carries no surplus value to the Astros as they have Giles for the 9th. Oh's a throw-in for them. He's a Gregerson complement that allows Devensky to stay in the multi-inning role in the post-season.

    Carpenter and Oh won't get you Bregman. The guy's a 23 yr old Carpenter clone with a much better glove. If you had tried to acquire him at this time last year, you couldn't get him. Right now he's dealing with an adjustment period so it's the time to strike. If you have to overpay for him, I think you do it. Giving up 2 pending FAs and an aging DH doesn't seem like too much to surrender.
    at least get aj reed back too. his stock has fallen, but he's having a nice season in AAA. They won't need him with Marp at 1b.

    he might be a matt adams, but he and gyorko can platoon-ish at 1b
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    QuoteOriginally Posted by two-hole View Post
    at least get aj reed back too. his stock has fallen, but he's having a nice season in AAA. They won't need him with Marp at 1b.

    he might be a matt adams, but he and gyorko can platoon-ish at 1b
    That's probably doable. But as you've noted, I'm not sure we didn't just get rid of AJ Reed. Frankly, Adams may be BETTER than Reed. Reed's looking like he may just be a lefthanded Chris Carter at this point.

    I know absolutely nothing about his options status but I'd guess he has 1 more. That may be enough to make him semi-valuable but honestly, I'm not convinced he's anything more than organizational filler at this point. If they said yes, I'd take him. If they said no, I'd make the deal anyway. If I'm taking minor league flyers, give me Colin Moran. He's probably John Mabry if everything breaks right, but he could be a solid bench player some day.
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    If we're going to play Kingmaker, trading Marp to Houston, we ought to likewise trade Gyorko to Boston. Devers can be our 1B someday.
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    QuoteOriginally Posted by two-hole View Post
    If we're going to play Kingmaker, trading Marp to Houston, we ought to likewise trade Gyorko to Boston. Devers can be our 1B someday.
    Sold.

    If the 2021 squad is built around:

    Devers
    Wong/Diaz
    Perez
    Bregman
    Kelly

    Bader
    Sierra
    Arozarena
    Machado

    Martinez
    Reyes
    Flaherty
    Alcantara
    Weaver

    Fernandez
    Hudson
    Gomber
    Woodford
    Gallen
    Oviedo

    Well hell, you might actually have a fun team to watch at that point.

    There will be an opportunity or two available to the Cardinals this trade deadline. They'll pass. They had an opportunity to get Robert for nothing but cash and didn't have the stomach for it. He'd have made that list all the nicer. But hey, they won't be terrible at any point. They just have no designs on being good either.
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