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Thread: PECOTA

  1. #1
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    PECOTA

    Much blather about an "anti-Cardinal" bias when they predicted 76 wins.

    I said it would make an interesting over/under, but I'd take the under.

    To make it to 76 wins, they have to play nearly .500 baseball the rest of the way.
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  2. #2
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    They won't get to 70.
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  3. #3
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    QuoteOriginally Posted by STJOMO View Post
    They won't get to 70.
    I was shocked by the sunny optimism in our "win prediction" thread.
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  4. #4
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    They bought into the narrative, apparently.
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    QuoteOriginally Posted by STJOMO View Post
    They bought into the narrative, apparently.
    The Emperor's new suit looks great!
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    Kinda tough to shoot for 88 wins when your centerpiece acquisition is Dexter Fowler.
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    QuoteOriginally Posted by STJOMO View Post
    Kinda tough to shoot for 88 wins when your centerpiece acquisition is Dexter Fowler.
    It's a lesson that will be learned this year - apparently, quite bitterly.
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  8. #8
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    QuoteOriginally Posted by STJOMO View Post
    They won't get to 70.
    Yeah, they will.
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  9. #9
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    Speaking of which. . .
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  10. #10
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    QuoteOriginally Posted by STJOMO View Post
    Speaking of which. . .
    ROFLFMAO

    Same as it ever was
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    QuoteOriginally Posted by John D View Post
    ROFLFMAO

    Same as it ever was
    A hundred bucks says the Cardinals win 71 or more games this year. You in, bigmouth?
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    QuoteOriginally Posted by paulie walnuts View Post
    A hundred bucks says the Cardinals win 71 or more games this year. You in, bigmouth?
    I'll give you the same response you gave me on the Presidential election.
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    QuoteOriginally Posted by John D View Post
    I'll give you the same response you gave me on the Presidential election.
    Meaning we're both smart enough not to take a likely losing bet.

    Sadly, only one of us is smart enough not to articulate absurd positions he doesn't himself believe.
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    QuoteOriginally Posted by paulie walnuts View Post
    Meaning we're both smart enough not to take a likely losing bet.

    Sadly, only one of us is smart enough not to articulate absurd positions he doesn't himself believe.
    Except you really "did" believe Madame DeFarge was a lock.
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  15. #15
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    I am willing to bet that hundred the Cardinals don't make .500
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    QuoteOriginally Posted by John D View Post
    I am willing to bet that hundred the Cardinals don't make .500
    Now that's a bet worth considering.

    I assume you're referring to their final record, not being .500 at any point of the season?
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    QuoteOriginally Posted by John D View Post
    Except you really "did" believe Madame DeFarge was a lock.
    Yep. Everybody did.

    Except Putin, of course. He knew better.
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    QuoteOriginally Posted by paulie walnuts View Post
    Now that's a bet worth considering.

    I assume you're referring to their final record, not being .500 at any point of the season?
    They have to finish 6 games over from here on out? I don't see it, and I had pixie dust in my eyes and thought they'd win 90.
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    QuoteOriginally Posted by Sonicblast12 View Post
    They have to finish 6 games over from here on out? I don't see it, and I had pixie dust in my eyes and thought they'd win 90.
    They can't be this bad? Can they??
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  20. #20
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    They're not losing 120 games, no.

    But they're not even close to a winning team right now.
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    QuoteOriginally Posted by paulie walnuts View Post
    They can't be this bad? Can they??
    Do you see any indications that they aren't?

    I mean, apart from raw hope, where is a sudden turnaround coming from? Wainwright is gone, man. He's just gone and he's not coming back. We'll be lucky to win 10 games he starts this year, IMO. Lynn's velocity still doesn't seem right and for a guy that doesn't have a breaking ball or a plan to defeat lefties, losing much of anything off that fastball is death. He's gonna have an ERA in the mid-high 4s by the end of the year, IMO.

    Martinez will be better but we did win one of his starts (and Matheny has him throwing 118 pitches on nights that he clearly can't find it...so that'll help). Wacha's looked shockingly decent but you can never trust him. Leake might be the best pitcher we have by the end of the season....it's come to THAT.

    And no, this team full of average or worse defensive players isn't going to be a good defensive team just because we brought in an average defensive CFer and moved a bad defender to 1b. It isn't going to learn to run the bases just because one guy showed up that kinda can. Kolten Wong isn't going to become better just because we gave him money and Mike Matheny isn't going to become smarter just because he really wants to be.

    This is a bad baseball team. Perhaps not THIS bad, but do you really see these guys playing .533 baseball from here out? That's a 87 win pace over 162 games. I didn't think they had that in them before I saw them shit all over themselves (I thought 85ish). And everything I've seen since the season started suggests that I was being kind.
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    QuoteOriginally Posted by paulie walnuts View Post
    Now that's a bet worth considering.

    I assume you're referring to their final record, not being .500 at any point of the season?
    Yes.

    Their final record.

    And, for the record, I do believe Matheny is such a crappy manager that a complete collapse is not only possible, but likely.

    This could be the worst finish we've seen in nearly 3 decades of baseball.
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  23. #23
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    Oz as usual you have knocked it out of the park. Well said.


    ....row
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  24. #24
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    70-92 in 1990, the year Herzog resigned.

    We're at a similar juncture in franchise history
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    QuoteOriginally Posted by Oz-iz-God View Post
    Do you see any indications that they aren't?

    I mean, apart from raw hope, where is a sudden turnaround coming from? Wainwright is gone, man. He's just gone and he's not coming back. We'll be lucky to win 10 games he starts this year, IMO. Lynn's velocity still doesn't seem right and for a guy that doesn't have a breaking ball or a plan to defeat lefties, losing much of anything off that fastball is death. He's gonna have an ERA in the mid-high 4s by the end of the year, IMO.

    Martinez will be better but we did win one of his starts (and Matheny has him throwing 118 pitches on nights that he clearly can't find it...so that'll help). Wacha's looked shockingly decent but you can never trust him. Leake might be the best pitcher we have by the end of the season....it's come to THAT.

    And no, this team full of average or worse defensive players isn't going to be a good defensive team just because we brought in an average defensive CFer and moved a bad defender to 1b. It isn't going to learn to run the bases just because one guy showed up that kinda can. Kolten Wong isn't going to become better just because we gave him money and Mike Matheny isn't going to become smarter just because he really wants to be.

    This is a bad baseball team. Perhaps not THIS bad, but do you really see these guys playing .533 baseball from here out? That's a 87 win pace over 162 games. I didn't think they had that in them before I saw them shit all over themselves (I thought 85ish). And everything I've seen since the season started suggests that I was being kind.
    Miklasz - in his usual windsock form - says, "Things could get better with a string of good performances by the starters"

    No shit Sherlock.

    Have you watched any of this?

    I predicted a down year for Lynn simply because he's coming off Tommy John. I remember how Waino struggled the first year back.

    So, yeah... let's bring up Marco Gonzalez, right? Sure, that'll fix it.
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  26. #26
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    Worst team in the NL, only ahead of the Jays in the AL after their historically bad start. Every stat ESPN trotted out last night had the Cardinals 29th. Somehow they also lost the ability to hit homers.
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    QuoteOriginally Posted by Sonicblast12 View Post
    Worst team in the NL, only ahead of the Jays in the AL after their historically bad start. Every stat ESPN trotted out last night had the Cardinals 29th. Somehow they also lost the ability to hit homers.
    Standard Mozeliak over-correction; he's been doing it for 5+ years now. It really started with Khalil Greene the year after they 'wanted more offense from SS' and just robbed Peter to pay Paul.

    This team has been all over the road for awhile now because Mozeliak always overcorrects in the face of a problem.
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  28. #28
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    Going in to the season they had only one really reliable pitcher C- Mart the others were all ifs, pretty hard to figure they would be any better than a 500 club.
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    QuoteOriginally Posted by John D View Post
    Miklasz - in his usual windsock form - says, "Things could get better with a string of good performances by the starters"

    No shit Sherlock.

    Have you watched any of this?

    I predicted a down year for Lynn simply because he's coming off Tommy John. I remember how Waino struggled the first year back.

    So, yeah... let's bring up Marco Gonzalez, right? Sure, that'll fix it.

    So OF COURSE.... after another one of your "predictions".......Lynn goes out and throws a gem tonight. Sorta' like your canonizing Francona last Oct with the Tribe up 3-1 in the WS......only to see him then lose three straight to the Cubs to lose the whole damn thing. You ARE nothing else if not consistent......Doof.
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  30. #30
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    Ha ha.....Doof. I thought not.........you dumb ass.
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  31. #31
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    Sure thing. Everything's fixed.

    You prepared to bet the team finishes better than .500?
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    QuoteOriginally Posted by John D View Post
    Sure thing. Everything's fixed.

    You prepared to bet the team finishes better than .500?
    I am.

    Maybe it's irrational exuberance after sweeping the Bucs (and their losing Marte for the bulk of the season)

    Or - mostly - my belief that the Cardinals simply have too much talent to finish under .500.

    So here's the bet:

    If the Cardinals finish the 2017 regular season with a winning percentage over .500, you pay me $100.

    If they finish under .500, I pay you the same amount.

    If they finish at .500 it's a push.

    This accounts for the possibility that they play a 161, 163 or another oddball number game season.

    No donations to the other guy's charity or being banished from the board. Straight cash bet.

    We on?
    Last edited by paulie walnuts; 04-19-2017 at 05:30 PM.
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  33. #33
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    Bumping for John D.
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  34. #34
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    I'll do that.

    Your exuberance over 6 runs in 3 games is duly noted.
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    QuoteOriginally Posted by John D View Post
    I'll do that.

    Your exuberance over 6 runs in 3 games is duly noted.
    Self admitted exuberance, and yes, possibly irrational.

    I just have to believe these guys will hit better than they have been. There is too much talent.

    OK, we're on. I got witnesses. No welshing.
    Last edited by paulie walnuts; 04-20-2017 at 11:58 AM.
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  36. #36
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    No problem - racist.
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  37. #37
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    QuoteOriginally Posted by John D View Post
    No problem - racist.
    Hey, don't gyp me!

    I'll be mad if you renege.
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  38. #38
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    QuoteOriginally Posted by John D View Post
    Yes.

    Their final record.

    And, for the record, I do believe Matheny is such a crappy manager that a complete collapse is not only possible, but likely.

    This could be the worst finish we've seen in nearly 3 decades of baseball.

    ...& I believe that in the event of a complete collapse (say: < 70 wins...) Matheny will still be managing the team in 2018. *smh*
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  39. #39
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    QuoteOriginally Posted by The Hawk View Post
    ...& I believe that in the event of a complete collapse (say: < 70 wins...) Matheny will still be managing the team in 2018. *smh*
    I believe that too. It will take 2 full years of this before dawn starts to break and DeWitt sells the team.
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  40. #40
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    QuoteOriginally Posted by paulie walnuts View Post
    Hey, don't gyp me!

    I'll be mad if you renege.
    You see that dong Paulie?

    That guy is obviously using PED's right?
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  41. #41
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    BUMP
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  42. #42
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    QuoteOriginally Posted by John D View Post
    I believe that too. It will take 2 full years of this before dawn starts to break and DeWitt sells the team.
    Jeb Bush wants to buy a team.
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  43. #43
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    QuoteOriginally Posted by m.j.murphy View Post
    Jeb Bush wants to buy a team.
    He would likely have the inside track.
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  44. #44
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    Where do I put this?

    Matt Holliday has an .871 OPS with 11 home runs and 32 RBI for the Yankees.

    Our starting left fielder is in A ball.
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  45. #45
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    QuoteOriginally Posted by Sonicblast12 View Post
    Where do I put this?

    Matt Holliday has an .871 OPS with 11 home runs and 32 RBI for the Yankees.

    Our starting left fielder is in A ball.
    Apples to oranges......Holliday has not played an inning in the OF this season. He has managed just 4 starts as a position player (1B) this season (32 innings)

    If Holliday were asked to play LF everyday he would almost surely be on the DL at this point.
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  46. #46
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    QuoteOriginally Posted by TCB 6-4-3 View Post
    If Holliday were asked to play LF everyday he would almost surely be on the DL at this point.
    Maybe.

    I still think letting him go was the right move.

    Sadly, his replacement(s) have proven not ready for prime time.

    (Actually, Pham has.)
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  47. #47
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    QuoteOriginally Posted by paulie walnuts View Post
    Maybe.

    I still think letting him go was the right move.

    Sadly, his replacement(s) have proven not ready for prime time.

    (Actually, Pham has.)
    2 years in a row.

    Heyward goes - Windmill Grichuk in CF and batting cleanup (fool me once)

    Holliday goes - Windmill Grichuk slides over to LF - (fool me twice)

    Big winners? Dollar Bill DeWitt and John Mozeliak - 25 million directly taken to the bottom line.

    BUT... no money for Luis Robert.

    DRY POWDER... and the Windmill in A Ball
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