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Thread: Bold Predictions thread

  1. #1
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    Bold Predictions thread

    Opportunity for a little levity...and serious shit-talking.

    I'll kick it off.

    Predicted finish (no offense intended. especially Smitty. No OFFense at all. ! snap!)

    Ambitious Rubbish
    Jobu Needs a Refill
    Hutchs Hospital
    Smitty's Lumber Co.
    Goldschmidt Happens
    Payroll Mussel
    St Louis Cowboys 16
    Sonic Underachievers
    Marmots
    High Cards Cards
    Last edited by two-hole; 03-30-2017 at 10:05 AM.
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  2. #2
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    Yes, I know.

    I am busy wasting away my Kershaw years.
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  3. #3
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    Oz will suffer a parade of injuries and finish 1st
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    It would be false humility to say that I don't like my chances this year but it has little to do with my poorly focused, scattershot draft that came about from me completely mis-firing on how I thought the first 2 rounds would go and then getting routinely scooped by Hutch. I need to make sure I don't have the same draft strategy as that guy next year.

    Me: 9400 - Mostly on the strength of my offense and RP. The pitching is relatively deep but also full of injury/blowup risks so it needed to be. I suspect I'll be scrambling by mid-June as is my usual custom. "This year it will be different...." {continues to load staff full of high risk SPs}

    Hutch: 9100 - I feel like the major difference here is going to be in the 5/6 spots on the respective SP staffs. If Rodon and Walker make the leap that many think they could (and if Carrasco stays healthy to be Hutch's answer to Bumgarner), Hutch can swing this.

    Smitty: 9025 - Probably the 2nd worst offense in the league teamed with the best pitching staff in the league. Add in a 150+ pt kicker for the SP/CL and I think that staff is just good enough to sneak you past RBF but the offense keeps you from going any further. Sorry hoss....it's just bad.

    RBF: 8975 - Hard to win this thing without a 500 pt first baseman. By giving up 100 pts at 1b, you're neutralizing your massive advantage at C and 2b. It takes your offense just a small step down from me and Hutch, IMO. 1b and OF are lacking in upside (even if you presume 400 pts from Brantley). Pitching, RPs look good but like Hutch, leaning hard on some iffy 5/6 starters. And I like Paxton but having him at 4 when his results have never matched his stuff is also risky. I think you end up wishing you had a deeper staff when all is said and done though that top end is amazing.

    Tiger: 8350 - Our first significant dropoff. A good offense backed by a solid if unspectacular pitching staff. Just too shy in RP. Even witht the RP holes filled, it's probably not enough to vault a tier. Some good offensive depth but not quite enough places to play them.

    LOB: 8300 - Solid offense that could be top tier if Davis is more 2015 than 2016. Lacks a true ace though Martinez and Tanaka both have some upside ( just think Tanaka's 200K potential is past and Martinez is loving those grounders so his K rates may be lower than they could be). Just not quite enough pitching to become a top tier team. Nice RP depth, at least for awhile. Some of that will have pared off by July though as his Rockies will canibalize each other and I don't think Kintzler or Gomez can keep the job. But hey, roles make results and right now he has guys with the job. More often than not, that works better than setup prospecting.

    Two-Hole: 8250 - Still just too early in the rebuild. Lots of good young players at key positions but maybe a year away still from real breakouts from Bregman and Benintendi (maybe...maybe not). Some good, sneaky value late in the OF. A repeat from Hendricks and/or a bounceback from Cole could make this estimate REALLY low (a 3rd pitch for Sanchez, health for Salazar, etc...). There's probably another 4-500 points in SP potential here that could get him challenging 86-8700 points but you'd need all of it to hit and that seems unlikely. Reed's unlikely to run with the job with Familia's short suspension though I fully expect Neris to get the job in Philly and Capps...man, who knows? I'd guess Maurer keeps it and Capps is more of a fireman. Managers don't like closers coming off surgery due to their reluctance to use them back to back. More upside than Row's closer situation and a better guy at the top, otherwise equally iffy.

    Row: 8200 - Just not enough offensive depth. 5 guys that can start for anybody and then 5 guys that are pretty forgettable (at least in this format). Granted, that leaves room for offensive upside but I don't see anybody on his roster likely to actually provide it. Hard not to love the top of that rotation though Price's elbow throws some stuff into flux. Things fall off pretty hard after SP4 though and the RP situation is fatal. Possibly the worst relief stable in the league with little/no shot at internal improvement. That said, there's a plan here and I don't think 'win in '17' was part of it. Doesn't have an ace. Yet.

    Sonic: 8050 - It pains me to put Sonic here but I'm pretty sure I lied when I said Smitty has the 2nd worst offense in the league. That's probably Sonic. Desmond's recovery and performance in Coors could find him another 100 points on this estimate. Just not quite enough power/production numbers. Lots of speed, but not enough. Not enough upside in that rotation and I'm surprised to see no real youth added to it. Verlander, Felix, Moore, Hill, Roark and Hill gives a starting rotation average age of 33 yrs old. Relief situation is decent, especially with Barraclough backing Ramos.

    HC: 7800 - Happy birthday, HC....your team kinda sucks. But hey, it's a tradition unlike any other - I mock HC's team, it does better than expected. I hadn't made note of the worst offense in the league yet because I think it's right here. Guys that are premier assets in many leagues are just not as valuable here (Story and Stanton stand out). Then again, Fowler plays up in this structure and I love Castellanos upside. Dahl will produce when he gets back as well. No speed at all so if you're not at the top of the heap in power, you're going to struggle for points. There's some power on the squad, but pretty much all of it comes with question marks. A metric ton of upside in that pitching staff but you can usually bank on half of those bets going sideways on you (Matz is already looking like a write-off). Watson's suddenly looking like the iffiest closer in baseball and your other two guys are fantastic relievers stuck in the 8th. They'll point like closers, though, so that's nice.


    So there - enough shit that will obviously be irritating to some to count as shit talk. Enough stuff that will be absolutely wrong to rub my nose in it later.
    Last edited by Oz-iz-God; 03-31-2017 at 01:18 PM.
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  5. #5
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    why do you think I have 49573409830 pitchers on my roster. Trying to find a solid 4-6 guys. hoping someone takes off and another rises from the ashes.

    I'm bullish on Rendon. he got off to a bad bad start last year and then emerged to look more like the player everyone thought and managed to hit 400 points.

    I have managed to pull at Mo at 1B over the years and mismanaged everything. From trading Rizzo and then trading Votto. I'm feeling bullish on Belt and Springer. Not to mention a motivated Cain in a FA season. My main worry is the pitching 4-6.

    Row and Tiger hold the 1-4 1B in points last year. I more than make up for any deficits with my 2B and catcher.
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    I like Rendon as well; probably about a 425 pt player if health permits.

    Springer, OTOH, I've divested in my other leagues. Perhaps I'm being impatient but I see a guy that took a stunning 750 plate appearances to not managed to get to 30 HRs. He's already said he isn't going to run as much anymore. Why should I be more optimistic about him than Joc Pederson? Same strengths, same warts.
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  7. #7
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    Oz has way more buffer for things to go wrong than everyone else, and a history of making good corrections.
    In my best-case scenario pitching-wise, and I can challenge to win, but Jobu and Smitty might be safer bets for #2.

    Right now, HC seems to have the weakest team. But somehow HC won't finish last.
    Every freaking year he picks up 2 34-year-old journeymen having a hot 1st 10 days that end up staying at top-50 status all year.
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  8. #8
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    Seth Smith it is.
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    So if I can manage to get my hitting to be middle of the pack....I gotta chance!
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    MadBum will fall off his dirt bike and screw up his shoulder and ribs.
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    QuoteOriginally Posted by two-hole View Post
    MadBum will fall off his dirt bike and screw up his shoulder and ribs.
    Wow! Nailed it.

    Sorry bout your pitching luck, Oz.
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    QuoteOriginally Posted by two-hole View Post
    Wow! Nailed it.

    Sorry bout your pitching luck, Oz.
    Nobody has good pitching luck; it's pitching - they get hurt.

    But I'll be damned if I don't have weird pitching luck. Boats, bikes...heart failure. Every year I seem to have something that isn't your standard arm injury. And of course it had to be the one guy I thought I could count on as being reliable - never had a single stint on the DL prior to this. He was pretty much the rock in my annually shaky rotation.

    Well at least this one didn't die so I've got that going for me. And some slight changes in strategy and targets seems to have paid off with my fringe pitchers; looks like I'll still have enough guys to take the ball.

    Sonic pegged it years ago - use your innings when you have the manpower. There's very little sense in trying to conserve innings early because you know that by June/July you'll be struggling for arms.
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  13. #13
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    In the league I'm winning (an Ottoneu linear weights points league), I lost Bumgarner and Miggy on the same day.

    that's a tough pill.
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    Side note: Holy shit - Joe Maddon's managerial goofiness may yield a 2b/OF eligible Anthony Rizzo.

    I have no response to that. Greg Bird really sucks right now and I dicked up and dumped Thames, so I can't take full advantage of it, but it's pretty funny nonetheless.
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    QuoteOriginally Posted by Oz-iz-God View Post
    Sonic pegged it years ago - use your innings when you have the manpower. There's very little sense in trying to conserve innings early because you know that by June/July you'll be struggling for arms.
    Or Mid-April.

    I have NOTHING. Already.
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    QuoteOriginally Posted by Sonicblast12 View Post
    Or Mid-April.

    I have NOTHING. Already.
    Now now, to be fair, you didn't really start out with much.

    And drafting Rich Hill expecting him to throw 100+ innings is only a slightly better bet than drafting Jose Fernandez expecting him to throw 100 innings. In fact, I was more convinced that Jose would rise on Easter Sunday than I was that Rich Hill would make 20 starts.
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    QuoteOriginally Posted by Sonicblast12 View Post
    Or Mid-April.

    I have NOTHING. Already.
    how much would i have to pay you to take Kevin Gausman away from me?
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    QuoteOriginally Posted by Oz-iz-God View Post
    Now now, to be fair, you didn't really start out with much.

    And drafting Rich Hill expecting him to throw 100+ innings is only a slightly better bet than drafting Jose Fernandez expecting him to throw 100 innings. In fact, I was more convinced that Jose would rise on Easter Sunday than I was that Rich Hill would make 20 starts.
    I hated that pick as soon as I made it, so I'm not going to act butthurt about Rich Hill. I deserve whatever I get on that one.

    Didn't count on my best two starters to be my worst. I can't even get the Jays to hold onto a lead against the shitty Cardinals to get a freaking win. This collection of third starters would be Cy Young if I didn't draft them.
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    Everyone is broken.
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    My stream pick for today gave up 14 hits. FOURTEEN!

    At least I didn't have a 6-6 with 3 jacks and 10 rbi's on my bench.
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    QuoteOriginally Posted by Sonicblast12 View Post
    My stream pick for today gave up 14 hits. FOURTEEN!

    At least I didn't have a 6-6 with 3 jacks and 10 rbi's on my bench.
    eat sh1t
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    QuoteOriginally Posted by Redbirdfan1 View Post
    eat sh1t
    Progress!

    You actually had Rendon active for his 2 HRs and 5 RBI this time around...
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    Hutch has even managed to break Mike Trout.

    Shoulda traded him for baseball's sake...
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    QuoteOriginally Posted by Oz-iz-God View Post
    Hutch has even managed to break Mike Trout.
    Shoulda traded him for baseball's sake...
    It's past tragedy into comedy territory.
    People should deal me Bryant and Arrieta, for the Cards' sake.
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    At least you weren't losing to a guy that hasn't checked his team this year.

    I'm bad at this.
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    QuoteOriginally Posted by Sonicblast12 View Post
    At least you weren't losing to a guy that hasn't checked his team this year.
    I'm bad at this.
    I'm actually hanging in there for the bronze, at least until the most recent Duffy/Trout wave hit.
    If you account for IP used, I'm approximately tied for 3rd with Jobu, with a good gap behind me to drift back into.

    1st Place is gone at this point, though, so I'm listening on veterans if the deal is right for my roster. (Don't need a SS.)
    But I'm also still happy to see if I can still fight my way to that little 3rd place trophy. I can still drink out of it, dammit.
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    QuoteOriginally Posted by Hutch Fan View Post
    I'm actually hanging in there for the bronze, at least until the most recent Duffy/Trout wave hit.
    If you account for IP used, I'm approximately tied for 3rd with Jobu, with a good gap behind me to drift back into.

    1st Place is gone at this point, though, so I'm listening on veterans if the deal is right for my roster. (Don't need a SS.)
    But I'm also still happy to see if I can still fight my way to that little 3rd place trophy. I can still drink out of it, dammit.
    I'd been keeping an eye on you until Trout. You'd fallen back in the standings but you'd used so few IP that you were sitting a steady 300 pts back or so when those were factored in, which is nowhere near insurmountable at this point. With some SP returns and the inevitable 'stream starts against the Padres in August/September' strategy, you had a shot at making up those innings and closing the gap.

    But losing Trout for 6-8 weeks is likely to cost you another 75-100 points over that period. At some point there are just too many bullet holes and I'd like to think I'm slowly filling some holes on my squad and rounding it into shape. I don't think I'm gonna make it easy for anybody and Trout's almost certainly the last straw for ya.

    Man, as good as Trout is, can you imagine what he'd be outside of Anaheim, with a better supporting cast and away from that !@#$ing marine layer? I'm shocked by some of the balls that don't get out of SoCal at night; absolute cannons that hang up at the wall. Seriously, screw the Angels. They really should trade the guy for everyone's sake.
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    Well it certainly looks like my "Sportscar" of a pitching staff has developed a couple of flat tires the past couple of weeks.

    Hate to spot Oz too many points....but it is early.
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    QuoteOriginally Posted by SMITTYtheCARDINAL View Post
    Well it certainly looks like my "Sportscar" of a pitching staff has developed a couple of flat tires the past couple of weeks.

    Hate to spot Oz too many points....but it is early.
    Such is the nature of building around pitching. It's funny, but our league operates a lot like real MLB in that regard.

    If you build a great pitching staff and it stays healthy, it's almost impossible to beat. The problem is that it just rarely stays healthy. Meanwhile the 'safer' avenue is building a hell of an offense and trying to build pitching around it because the offense is less volatile.

    It really is like the Cubs vs. the Mets in approach. A full healthy season of the Mets with all their arms functioning at a level expected of them and I think the Mets would have the best record in baseball. But that's simply never going to happen for them. Too many pitfalls along the way.

    Just as the Mets would be a damn tough out if they had Syndergaard, Degrom, Harvey, Matz and Wheeler firing on all cylinders, you'll be equally difficult to deal with if you get Kershaw, Scherzer, Arrieta, Fulmer and Wacha at full throat.

    Honestly though, I'm still not sure how you didn't win the damn thing in 2015. Arrieta, Kershaw and Scherzer put up 2,600 points between them and Gray was a top 15 pitcher in his own right at 630. Throw in Wacha and your top 5 guys averaged 750+ points a piece. That's friggen unheard of. That has to be the best staff ever assembled in this league and without a close 2nd.

    As I sit here a 14 months removed from what I thought was a rotation that could challenge yours for the best ever (Fernandez, MadBum, Strasburg, Harvey, Salazar) and I have only 20% of that rotation still active for me, I realize just how fragile starting pitching is but just how important it can be in swinging the balance. It's a hell of a lot easier to put together a badass staff than a deep offense, but those badass staffs always seems to be more flash than substance.

    They never do what you expect them to do.
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  30. #30
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    Wins and losses carry such massive weight in the scoring. It doesn't take much for a 30 point start to turn into a 4 point start in this league.
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    QuoteOriginally Posted by Sonicblast12 View Post
    Wins and losses carry such massive weight in the scoring. It doesn't take much for a 30 point start to turn into a 4 point start in this league.
    True story.

    That said, DFS leagues do it the same way and while it's quirky, I don't really have an issue with it. I've noticed that I don't really care about team outcomes in my two H2H leagues and that seems a little off to me.
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  32. #32
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    I think I've won every H2H league I've ever played in (they were more casual leagues), but this format is a lot more challenging and a lot more fun. It's actually the only league I make time for. Hold on to the wrong players and you're boned. A couple of frontline players get hurt, you're boned. Get caught halfway paying attention and your roster gets old, you're boned. Get too attached to your players...boned.

    The only thing I don't like is that now the prospects everyone covets are immediately available in the player pool, so waiver order is largely meaningless. Dudes in A ball are in the player pool. That used to be cool, the next big thing would get a callup and 6 owners would have a waiver claim on that guy. You really had to think about whether you wanted to use your waiver or look further down the line. If one of those guys was a bust, it hurt. Now a lot of these guys are already on rosters when they won't get called up for months, if at all, so the rosters are short handed and injuries don't allow some owners to field teams. It's a give and take, but the old way was definately better IMO. On the other hand, it does make it easier for the 2nd division clubs to rebuild.
    Last edited by Sonicblast12; 06-02-2017 at 12:03 PM.
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  33. #33
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    QuoteOriginally Posted by Sonicblast12 View Post
    I think I've won every H2H league I've ever played in (they were more casual leagues), but this format is a lot more challenging and a lot more fun. It's actually the only league I make time for. Hold on to the wrong players and you're boned. A couple of frontline players get hurt, you're boned. Get caught halfway paying attention and your roster gets old, you're boned. Get too attached to your players...boned.

    The only thing I don't like is that now the prospects everyone covets are immediately available in the player pool, so waiver order is largely meaningless. Dudes in A ball are in the player pool. That used to be cool, the next big thing would get a callup and 6 owners would have a waiver claim on that guy. You really had to think about whether you wanted to use your waiver or look further down the line. If one of those guys was a bust, it hurt. You never wanted to be first in the waiver order at the end of the year.
    I prefer the free agent method because it allows for a more concerted rebuilding effort.

    If you really want to pull the chute on a squad, you can do so and grab 5-6 high-end AA guys and hold them for a year. Under the old method, you were really constrained quite a bit there; just one or two young guys available in any given year and if you wanted 'em, you had to grab them (and then sit at the bottom of the waiver order hoping to cycle back through).

    I think the FA method creates a lot more flexibility and variability in strategy. And frankly it's just more uniform because under the old method, SOME of the hot-shot prospects were draft eligible but there was seemingly no rhyme or reason.
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  34. #34
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    QuoteOriginally Posted by Oz-iz-God View Post
    I prefer the free agent method because it allows for a more concerted rebuilding effort.

    If you really want to pull the chute on a squad, you can do so and grab 5-6 high-end AA guys and hold them for a year. Under the old method, you were really constrained quite a bit there; just one or two young guys available in any given year and if you wanted 'em, you had to grab them (and then sit at the bottom of the waiver order hoping to cycle back through).

    I think the FA method creates a lot more flexibility and variability in strategy. And frankly it's just more uniform because under the old method, SOME of the hot-shot prospects were draft eligible but there was seemingly no rhyme or reason.
    Yeah I just edited my post to say that because that's the position I find myself in. My roster was looking WAYYY too much like the Cardinals roster and I hated my team. An old team in last place with overrated players not suited for our scoring is no fun. Two years of checking my team once a week and just picking up guys that were good last year caught up with me quick, but it's really all I had time for. My drafts are abysmal because it's always a travel week for me. Being 500 points from 6th and 500 points from 8th left me not even checking the team in September.
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    QuoteOriginally Posted by Sonicblast12 View Post
    Yeah I just edited my post to say that because that's the position I find myself in. My roster was looking WAYYY too much like the Cardinals roster and I hated my team. An old team in last place with overrated players not suited for our scoring is no fun. Two years of checking my team once a week and just picking up guys that were good last year caught up with me quick, but it's really all I had time for. My drafts are abysmal because it's always a travel week for me. Being 500 points from 6th and 500 points from 8th left me not even checking the team in September.
    I did that after the 2009 season. My 2010 and 2011 squads were just stagnant; didn't do anywhere near enough forward-thinking and trying to freshen up the roster. Those 2 years were just awful; no upside and no real ability to contend. Just two years wandering the wastelands trying to figure out how to fix a team that I'd let atrophy something awful. That's when I started trying to make sure I cycled in at least 3-4 new keepers every year.

    Sadly, building a team of 24 yr old superstars has put a crimp on those plans but I guess I'll make due....
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    Not that I needed or wanted Ian Desmond...but what kind of dumpster fire did you trade me in Matt Harvey? Someone get him a supermodel to nail, stat.
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    QuoteOriginally Posted by Sonicblast12 View Post
    Not that I needed or wanted Ian Desmond...but what kind of dumpster fire did you trade me in Matt Harvey? Someone get him a supermodel to nail, stat.
    You can see how much I valued Desmond.

    That's an all time garbage in, garbage out deal right there...
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    4 weeks til the break, looks like Oz has weathered all the storms thus far.
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    QuoteOriginally Posted by SMITTYtheCARDINAL View Post
    4 weeks til the break, looks like Oz has weathered all the storms thus far.
    Every time I think I'm poised to break out and start pulling away, I end up spinning wheels for a week. You essentially made up 50 points on me yesterday and have Kershaw going tonight. So I think I'm gonna struggle to shake you off anytime soon...
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    QuoteOriginally Posted by Oz-iz-God View Post
    You can see how much I valued Desmond.

    That's an all time garbage in, garbage out deal right there...
    I've never seen worse body language from a pitcher in my life. Good riddance Matt Harvey. Yuck.
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    QuoteOriginally Posted by Sonicblast12 View Post
    I've never seen worse body language from a pitcher in my life. Good riddance Matt Harvey. Yuck.
    You got me back by foisting Marco Estrada on me.

    What a pile of shit that guy has been...
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  42. #42
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    That's what I do. Ruin SP careers. Have no fear, Jon Gray's elbow ligaments will be scattered all over the Colorado infield in no time.
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  43. #43
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    QuoteOriginally Posted by Sonicblast12 View Post
    Not that I needed or wanted Ian Desmond...but what kind of dumpster fire did you trade me in Matt Harvey? Someone get him a supermodel to nail, stat.
    Now that he's on your staff, he's got Wacha's scapula thing going
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  44. #44
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    So I'm watching some baseball show that just happens to show a clip of Barry Bonds and Jim Leyland going at it in '91 and I went to look at Bonds numbers because every now and then I forget how absurd they really were.

    Hutch, did Bonds really average 800 pts/season from 2001-2004? Because my quick back of the napkin sketch here sure seems to suggest he did. 4 years where the guy was effectively 2 players.

    What an incredible, incredible run that guy had. Nobody else will ever touch it for a single year and that guy did it for FOUR.
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  45. #45
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    QuoteOriginally Posted by Oz-iz-God View Post
    So I'm watching some baseball show that just happens to show a clip of Barry Bonds and Jim Leyland going at it in '91 and I went to look at Bonds numbers because every now and then I forget how absurd they really were.

    Hutch, did Bonds really average 800 pts/season from 2001-2004? Because my quick back of the napkin sketch here sure seems to suggest he did. 4 years where the guy was effectively 2 players.

    What an incredible, incredible run that guy had. Nobody else will ever touch it for a single year and that guy did it for FOUR.
    I feel like it was definitely in the 600/700 range. 200 walks in addition to 45 HRs will do a lot for you. The steroid era was something else in our league.
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  46. #46
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    QuoteOriginally Posted by Hutch Fan View Post
    I feel like it was definitely in the 600/700 range. 200 walks in addition to 45 HRs will do a lot for you. The steroid era was something else in our league.
    It was, oddly enough, the 2004 season that really got my attention - not his 73 HR onslaught.

    232 walks (120 IBB) to only 41 strikouts. Just....wow. 860 pts that yr. Dude was a monster. And if LaRussa had his druthers, he'd have probably kept it up into his mid-40s. Hated the guy, but it sure would've been interesting to see what he could've done here...
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  47. #47
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    I've got to say, it's been a lot of fun cutting a lot of the redundancies I had and getting back in the mix. These new guys can swing it.
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  48. #48
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    QuoteOriginally Posted by Sonicblast12 View Post
    I've got to say, it's been a lot of fun cutting a lot of the redundancies I had and getting back in the mix. These new guys can swing it.
    I've found that in a lot of ways, getting rid of an unproductive player is more satisfying than acquiring a productive one.

    I'm looking forward to cutting Marco Estrada loose in a couple of weeks. That's what I get for trying to branch out on my starting pitcher views. Have hated that guy for years, found a couple of reasons why I shouldn't....and it turns out I was right. Gonna really regret that deal....
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  49. #49
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    Since I cut a lot of the dead weight my offense is good for 35/40 points every night. I even had a 60 point day last week.

    Starting pitching has been absolutely abysmal. I'll have 3 starters going and get 10 points out of it and burn 19 innings. I had 45 points on Saturday night and after my pitchers were done it was down to less than 30. Assholes.
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