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Thread: The Trump Fall

  1. #1
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    The Trump Fall

    http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/ho...rticle/2579877

    My guess is that Trump cannot win because he does not have a ground game. I think that Cruz is actually the early favorite. Win in Iowa, show well in New Hampshire, and be well-positioned as the focus shifts to the South. I think that Trump has exposed the Establishment and that it does not matter who they unite behind. The Establishment could defeat Trump. They can't defeat Cruz. JMHO.
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    QuoteOriginally Posted by IndianaMike View Post
    http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/ho...rticle/2579877

    My guess is that Trump cannot win because he does not have a ground game. I think that Cruz is actually the early favorite. Win in Iowa, show well in New Hampshire, and be well-positioned as the focus shifts to the South. I think that Trump has exposed the Establishment and that it does not matter who they unite behind. The Establishment could defeat Trump. They can't defeat Cruz. JMHO.
    Yeah, he has no idea how to run a big organization.
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    QuoteOriginally Posted by John D View Post
    Yeah, he has no idea how to run a big organization.
    Can you win delegates in bankruptcy court?
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    QuoteOriginally Posted by IndianaMike View Post
    Can you win delegates in bankruptcy court?
    Someone who knows how to manage a deficit and come out on top might be a good thing to have in the oval office.
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    QuoteOriginally Posted by ilcardsfan View Post
    Someone who knows how to manage a deficit and come out on top might be a good thing to have in the oval office.
    Let's start with someone who can intelligently articulate a full sentence.
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  6. #6
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    QuoteOriginally Posted by two-hole View Post
    Let's start with someone who can intelligently articulate a full sentence.
    He's so much smarter than you are it's laughable for you to insinuate he lacks intelligence.
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  7. #7
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    QuoteOriginally Posted by two-hole View Post
    Let's start with someone who can intelligently articulate a full sentence.
    Most billionaires are mentally retarded.
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  8. #8
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    "Nothing is but what is not" (Shakespeare, Macbeth, I, iii. Remember, gentlemen, we cannot always be sure of how an event will pan out. Things may not always be as they seem. Appearances can be deceiving.

    The older that I get, and that is Old, the more I understand what The Bard wrote.

    Not beyond the realm of possibility is that HRC might lose the Democratic nomination to ..... Sanders, or to someone not yet in the race. Not likely, but still possible.

    Or as Andujar, who was a good pitcher but no philosopher, once said, "Ya' never know."

    -Stay tuned.
    Last edited by Grandpa Boog; 01-10-2016 at 11:34 AM. Reason: punctuation
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    QuoteOriginally Posted by Grandpa Boog View Post
    "Nothing is but what is not" (Shakespeare, Macbeth, I, iii. Remember, gentlemen, we cannot always be sure of how an event will pan out. Things may not always be as they seem. Appearances can be deceiving.

    The older that I get, and that is Old, the more I understand what The Bard wrote.

    Not beyond the realm of possibility is that HRC might lose the Democratic nomination to ..... Sanders, or to someone not yet in the race. Not likely, but still possible.

    Or as Andujar, who was a good pitcher but no philosopher once said, "Ya' never know."

    -Stay tuned.
    One thing we do know.

    Donald Trump is much smarter than Two Hole.
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  10. #10
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    QuoteOriginally Posted by John D View Post
    Yeah, he has no idea how to run a big organization.
    I don't think that is the issue. Running a ground game in an election is a particular skill, even more so in caucus states. I haven't seen much reporting on his ground game. Maybe he has folks who have it all figure out. Cruz does have a ground game and the reporting is that there is no GOP candidate with his organization throughout the early states.

    I wonder what happens to Trump if he not only doesn't win Iowa, but maybe finishes a Dean-like 3rd and then loses, finishing 3rd behind an establishment guy and Cruz there. Does that piece his veil of invincibility and get repeated in SC, FL and NV?

    If so the race becomes Cruz vs whichever establishment guy wins (or finishes 2nd) in NH.
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  11. #11
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    There are plenty of people in those overflow crowds who know the score.
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    Cruz has the best ground game, no doubt. Then again, only Trump has tens of thousands of people waiting 3+ hours in bad weather to hear him speak. If someone doesn't think that kind of drawing power translates to votes, then that person needs to overcome their bias and re-evaluate.

    Cheap is right though, if Trump loses NH, then voters will start deserting him... unless Ken Kratz and the Manitowic county police are found to be involved in the vote counting. Of course, that opens up the question of what they are doing in NH in the first place.
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  13. #13
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    QuoteOriginally Posted by Ogge View Post
    Cruz has the best ground game, no doubt. Then again, only Trump has tens of thousands of people waiting 3+ hours in bad weather to hear him speak. If someone doesn't think that kind of drawing power translates to votes, then that person needs to overcome their bias and re-evaluate.

    Cheap is right though, if Trump loses NH, then voters will start deserting him... unless Ken Kratz and the Manitowic county police are found to be involved in the vote counting. Of course, that opens up the question of what they are doing in NH in the first place.
    This is a great "problem" to have.

    I'd be delighted if either of them gets the nomination.

    I'm 53 and have never been able to say that before.
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  14. #14
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    QuoteOriginally Posted by John D View Post
    This is a great "problem" to have.

    I'd be delighted if either of them gets the nomination.

    I'm 53 and have never been able to say that before.

    Maybe they'll both be a part of it.


    http://www.allenbwest.com/2015/11/wh...ice-president/
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  15. #15
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    QuoteOriginally Posted by CheapSeats View Post
    I don't think that is the issue. Running a ground game in an election is a particular skill, even more so in caucus states. I haven't seen much reporting on his ground game. Maybe he has folks who have it all figure out. Cruz does have a ground game and the reporting is that there is no GOP candidate with his organization throughout the early states.

    I wonder what happens to Trump if he not only doesn't win Iowa, but maybe finishes a Dean-like 3rd and then loses, finishing 3rd behind an establishment guy and Cruz there. Does that piece his veil of invincibility and get repeated in SC, FL and NV?

    If so the race becomes Cruz vs whichever establishment guy wins (or finishes 2nd) in NH.
    Much of the conventional wisdom does not seem to apply in this election cycle. Hillary's legal problems don't appear to be impacting her -- yet. The stupidest things that come out of Trump's mouth don't seem to diminish his supporters to any significant extent. By the time the election rolls around, the conventional wisdom may reassert itself, but that appears less and less likely.

    When Trump first announced, I made the comment that his populist, demagogic message would be very seductive to many voters. I underestimated how many.

    For what it's worth, I backed the wrong horse in 1980 too. I was a fan of John Anderson's 50 cent a gallon gasoline tax, on the theory that it was better to pay more now and conserve domestic oil supplies for the inevitable shortages than to have more spending money. After Anderson fell by the wayside, I favored Bush over Reagan.

    The smartest man in this discussion is Grandpa Boog. He's lived long enough to know what he doesn't know, to a greater extent than the rest of us.
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